Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
